August 17, 2007

Repeating A Fatal Mistake

Posted by Adam Waxman at 2:02PM

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As a generation, I think we 20-somethings can be pretty proud of ourselves. We're more engaged, more involved, and more active than generations that immediately preceded us. Soon young people will be heading back to school. Along with the usual tests, papers, and long reading assignments, college students across the US will be engaged in a plethora of worthy causes -- stopping genocide in Darfur, safeguarding reproductive freedom, and championing educational equity.

Yet, there's an important issue that young people need to provide leadership on: the sale of arms to dictators. The US just announced it's planning on sending $20 billion in arms to Saudi Arabia (with almost $65 billion going to the Middle East overall) in a short-sighted attempted to scare Iran. Young people need to stand up and oppose this deal because we're the ones who'll be dealing with the negative effects down the road.

This past July, Defense Secretary Gates announced an imminent arms sale package: the US will sell $20 billion over 10 years to the Saudi Kingdom, mostly in the form of advanced weaponry such as fighter jets and missile guidance systems. US officials are also hoping that the deal also will include significant military aid to Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Administration officials seem to have two main objectives with this sale -- threatening Iran, and shoring up Sunni support in Iraq.

Am I the only one who feels like I'm watching a replay of a bad movie? It looks like US policymakers are about to repeat some familiar fatal mistakes. Recent American aid policy is littered with examples of the US giving arms to unsavory characters for short-term benefit -- including arming the mujahadeen fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan and the Iraqi army (in their war with Iran) in the '80s. One would think, after 9-11, that American officials would be savvy to the idea of blowback.

Thanks to the efforts of former intelligence officials like Richard Clarke and Michael Scheuer, most people are aware of US support for the 'holy warriors' fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan during the 1980s. One of those fighters, Osama Bin Laden supposedly founded the Al-Qaeda network. One would figure that the US policy establishment would get that it's not the smartest idea to support the enemy of your enemy -- because you might wind up with more than you bargained for.

Yet, there they go again. The Administration seems blind to how poorly this could work out. We should be particularly wary of Saudi Arabia as a partner in the Middle East. Analysts have noted for years the Kingdom's corruption, instability, and ties to terrorists. Robert Baer, a 21-year CIA veteran, noted in the Atlantic Monthly that between 1993 and 2003, the Saudi royal family transferred half a billion dollars to Al-Qaeda. The ruling family does this in an attempt to stave off extremism within their own borders -- hoping that they can export radicalism in the Kingdom and avoid it at home.

Radicals at home have a lot to complain about -- in the last twenty years, per capita income in Saudi Arabia has fallen from $28,600 to $6,800. The general population sees the ruling family as corrupt, distant, and impious. Those issues are a huge image problem for the rulers of a country where the overwhelming majority of PhDs are in Islamic Studies. Add in a young, malcontented population, and you've got a recipe for trouble.

We all know how this story ends. In ten, twenty years, will the US still consider the Saudis allies? Will there even be a Saudi Arabia? Let's not even get into the other states considered in this arms package. This administration seems more than happy to engage in short-term saber rattling as opposed to providing long-term policy vision. The reality is that many of them will be long gone by the time their policy has taken full effect and the impact becomes clear -- which is why young people in the United States need to be vocal in opposing this arms deal and leading the way to a new, long term-vision of what US foreign policy should look like.

As US students get back to school, they should mobilize to educate the wider campus community about what's going on. I'm sure most students would rather see $20 billion invested in making college more affordable over the next 10 years than thrown away to arm another dictatorship. Another action students could take on their campuses would be to promote alternative energy and green construction around their colleges -- after all, the US wouldn't feel the need to cozy up to the Saudi autocracy if America wasn't so dependent on their oil.

This looming arms deal is neither wise nor necessary. The reality remains that US policymakers want to try to throw weapons in a volatile region in an attempt to solve a short-term problem. As usual, their not thinking about the long term and what affect this arms deal might have on the world after they are long gone. It'll be up to US students to lead the way -- along with hitting the books this semester, it's also time to hit the streets.